Analyzing cricket’s batting legends – Through the mirage with R

In this post I do a deep dive into the records of the all-time batting legends of cricket to identify interesting information about their achievements. In my opinion, the usual currency for batsman’s performance like most number of centuries or highest batting average are too gross in their significance. I wanted something finer where we can pin-point specific strengths of different players

This post will answer the following questions.
– How many times has a batsman scored runs in a specific range say 20-40 or 80-100 and so on?
– How do different batsmen compare against each other?
– Which of the batsmen stayed well beyond their sell-by date?
– Which of the batsmen retired too soon?
– What is the propensity for a batsman to get caught, bowled run out etc?

For this analysis I have chosen the batsmen below for the following reasons
Sir Don Bradman : With a batting average of 99.94 Bradman was an obvious choice
Sunil Gavaskar is one of India’s batting icons who amassed 774 runs in his debut against the formidable West Indies in West Indies
Brian Lara : A West Indian batting hero who has double, triple and quadruple centuries under his belt
Sachin Tendulkar: A prolific run getter, India’s idol, who holds the record for most test centuries by any batsman (51 centuries)
Ricky Ponting:A dangerous batsman against any bowling attack and who can demolish any bowler on his day
Rahul Dravid: He was India’s most dependable batsman who could weather any storm in a match single-handedly
AB De Villiers : The destructive South African batsman who can pulverize any attack when he gets going

The analysis has been performed on these batsmen on various parameters. Clearly different batsmen have shone in different batting aspects. The analysis focuses on each of these to see how the different players stack up against each other.

The data for the above batsmen has been taken from ESPN Cricinfo. Only the batting statistics of the above batsmen in Test cricket has been taken. The implementation for this analysis has been done using the R language. The R implementation, datasets and the plots can be accessed at GitHub at analyze-batting-legends. Feel free to fork or clone the code. You should be able to use the code with minor modifications on other players. Also go ahead make your own modifications and hack away!

If you are passionate about cricket, and love analyzing cricket performances, then check out my 2 racy books on cricket! In my books, I perform detailed yet compact analysis of performances of both batsmen, bowlers besides evaluating team & match performances in Tests , ODIs, T20s & IPL. You can buy my books on cricket from Amazon at $12.99 for the paperback and $4.99/$6.99 respectively for the kindle versions. The books can be accessed at Cricket analytics with cricketr and Beaten by sheer pace-Cricket analytics with yorkr A must read for any cricket lover! Check it out!!

Important note: Do check out the python avatar of cricketr, ‘cricpy’ in my post ‘Introducing cricpy:A python package to analyze performances of cricketers”

Key insights from my analysis below
a) Sir Don Bradman’s unmatchable record of 99.94 test average with several centuries, double and triple centuries makes him the gold standard of test batting as seen in the ‘All-time best batsman below’
b) Sunil Gavaskar is the king of batting in India, followed by Rahul Dravid and finally Sachin Tendulkar. See the charts below for details
c) Sunil Gavaskar and Rahul Dravid had at least 2 more years of good test cricket in them. Their retirement was premature. This is based on the individual batsmen’s career graph (moving average below)
d) Brian Lara, Sachin Tendulkar, Ricky Ponting, Vivian Richards retired at a time when their batting was clearly declining. The writing on the wall was clear and they had to go (see moving average below)
e) The biggest hitter of 4’s was Vivian Richards. In the 2nd place is Brian Lara. Tendulkar & Dravid follow behind. Dravid is a surprise as he has the image of a defender.
e) While Sir Don Bradman made huge scores, the number of 4’s in his innings was significantly less. This could be because the ground in those days did not carry the ball far enough
f) With respect to dismissals Richards was able to keep his wicket intact (11%) of the times , followed by Ponting Tendulkar, De Villiers, Dravid (10%) who carried the bat, and Gavaskar & Bradman (7%)

A) Runs frequency table and charts
These plots normalize the batting performance of different batsman, since the number of innings played ranges from 89 (Bradman) to 348 (Tendulkar), by calculating the percentage frequency the batsman scores runs in a particular range. For e.g. Sunil Gavaskar made scores between 60-80 10% of his total innings

This is shown in a tabular form below

The individual charts for each of the players are shwon belowThe top performers after removing ranges 0-20 & 20-40 are
Between 40-60 runs – 1) Ricky Ponting (16.4%) 2) Brian lara (15.8%) 3) AB De Villiers (14.6%)
Between 60-80 runs – 1) Vivian Richards (18%) 2) AB De Villiers (10.2%) 3) Sunil Gavaskar (10%)
Between 80-100 runs – 1) Rahul Dravid (7.6%) 2) Brian Lara (7.4%) 3) AB De Villiers (6.4%)
Between 100 -120 runs – 1) Sunil Gavaskar (7.5%) 2) Sir Don Bradman (6.8%) 3) Vivian Richards (5.8%)
Between 120-140 runs – 1) Sir Don Bradman (6.8%) 2) Sachin Tendulkar (2.5%) 3) Vivian Richards (2.3%)

The percentage frequency for Brian Lara is included below
1) Brian Lara

The above chart shows out of the total number of innings played by Brian Lara he scored runs in the range (40-60) 16% percent of the time. The chart also shows that Lara scored between 0-20, 40% while also scoring in the ranges 360-380 & 380-400 around 1%.
The same chart is displayed as continuous graph below

The run frequency charts for other batsman are
2) Sir Don Bradman
a) Run frequency

Note: Notice the significant contributions by Sir Don Bradman in the ranges 120-140,140-160,220-240,all the way up to 340
b) Performance

3) Sunil Gavaskar
a) Runs frequency chart

b) Performance chart

4) Sachin Tendulkar
a) Runs frequency chart

b) Performance chart

5) Ricky Ponting
a) Runs frequency

b) Performance

6) Rahul Dravid
a) Runs frequency chart

b) Performance chart

7) Vivian Richards
a) Runs frequency chart

b) Performance chart

8) AB De Villiers
a) Runs frequency chart

b) Performance chart

B) Relative performance of the players
In this section I try to measure the relative performance of the players by superimposing the performance graphs obtained above. You may say that “comparisons are odious!”. But equally odious are myths that are based on gross facts like highest runs, average or most number of centuries.
a) All-time best batsman
(Sir Don Bradman, Sunil Gavaskar, Vivian Richards, Sachin Tendulkar, Ricky Ponting, Brian Lara, Rahul Dravid, AB De Villiers)

From the above chart it is clear that Sir Don Bradman is the ‘gold’ standard in batting. He is well above others for run ranges above 100 – 350
b) Best Indian batsman (Sunil Gavaskar, Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid)

The above chart shows that Gavaskar is ahead of the other two for key ranges between 100 – 130 with almost 8% contribution of total runs. This followed by Dravid who is ahead of Tendulkar in the range 80-120. According to me the all time best Indian batsman is 1) Sunil Gavaskar 2) Rahul Dravid 3) Sachin Tendulkar

c) Best batsman -( Brian Lara, Ricky Ponting, Sachin Tendulkar, AB De Villiers)
This chart was prepared since this comparison was often made in recent times

This chart shows the following ranking 1) AB De Villiers 2) Sachin Tendulkar 3) Brian Lara/Ricky Ponting
C) Chart of 4’s

This chart is plotted with a 2nd order curve of the number of 4’s versus the total runs in the innings
1) Brian Lara

2) Sir Don Bradman

3) Sunil Gavaskar

4) Sachin Tendulkar

5) Ricky Ponting

6) Rahul Dravid

7) Vivian Richards

8) AB De Villiers

D) Proclivity for type of dismissal
The below charts show how often the batsman was out bowled, caught, run out etc
1) Brian Lara

2) Sir Don Bradman

3) Sunil Gavaskar

4) Sachin Tendulkar

5) Ricky Ponting

6) Rahul Dravid

7) Vivian Richard

8) AB De Villiers

E) Moving Average
The plots below provide the performance of the batsman as a time series (chronological) and is displayed as the continuous gray lines. A moving average is computed using ‘loess regression’ and is shown as the dark line. This dark line represents the players performance improvement or decline. The moving average plots are shown below
1) Brian Lara

2) Sir Don Bradman

Sir Don Bradman’s moving average shows a remarkably consistent performance over the years. He probably could have a continued for a couple more years
3)Sunil Gavaskar

Gavaskar moving average does show a good improvement from a dip around 1983. Gavaskar retired bowing to public pressure on a mistaken belief that he was under performing. Gavaskar could have a continued for a couple of more years
4) Sachin Tendulkar

Tendulkar’s performance is clearly on the decline from 2011. He could have announced his retirement at least 2 years prior
5) Ricky Ponting

Ponting peak performance was around 2005 and does go steeply downward from then on. Ponting could have also retired around 2012
6) Rahul Dravid

Dravid seems to have recovered very effectively from his poor for around 2009. His overall performance shows steady improvement. Dravid’s announcement appeared impulsive. Dravid had another 2 good years of test cricket in him
7) Vivian Richards

Richard’s performance seems to have dropped around 1984 and seems to remain that way.
8) AB De Villiers

AB De Villiers moving average shows a steady upward swing from 2009 onwards. De Villiers has at least 3-4 years of great test cricket ahead of him.

Finally as mentioned above the dataset, the R implementation and all the charts are available at GitHub at analyze-batting-legends. Feel free to fork and clone the code. The code should work for other batsman as-is. Also go ahead and make any modifications for obtaining further insights.

Conclusion: The batting legends have been analyzed from various angles namely i) What is the frequency of runs scored in a particular range ii) How each batsman compares with others for relative runs in a specified range iii) How does the batsman get out? iv) What were the peak and lean period of the batsman and whether they recovered or slumped from these periods. While the batsman themselves have played in different time periods I think in an overall sense the performance under the conditions of the time will be similar.
Anyway feel free to let me know your thoughts. If you see other patterns in the data also do drop in your comment.

Also see
– A crime map of India in R – Crimes against women
– What’s up Watson? Using IBM Watson’s QAAPI with Bluemix, NodeExpress – Part 1
– Bend it like Bluemix, MongoDB with autoscaling – Part 1

R incantations for the uninitiated

Here are some basic R incantations that will get you started with R

A) Scalars & Vectors:
Chant 1 – Now repeat after me, with your right hand forward at shoulder height “In R there are no scalars. There are only vectors of length 1”.
Just kidding:-)

To create an integer variable x with a value 5 we write
x <- 5 or x = 5
While the former notation may seem odd, it is actually more logical considering that the RHS is assigned to LHS. Anyway both seem to work
Vectors can be created as follows
a <- c( 2:10) b <- c("This", "is", 'R","language")

B) Sequences:
There are several ways of creating sequences of numbers which you intend to use for your computation
<- seq(5:25) # Sequence from 5 to 25

Other ways to create sequences
Increment by 2
> seq(5, 25, by=2) [1] 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

>seq(5,25,length=18) # Create sequence from 5 to 25 with a total length of 18 [1] 5.000000 6.176471 7.352941 8.529412 9.705882 10.882353 12.058824 13.235294 [9] 14.411765 15.588235 16.764706 17.941176 19.117647 20.294118 21.470588 22.647059 [17] 23.823529 25.000000

C) Conditions and loops
An if-else if-else construct goes like this
if(condition) { do something } else if (condition) { do something } else { do something }

Note: Make sure the statements appear as above with the else if and else appearing on the same line as the closing braces, otherwise R complains about ‘unexpected else’ in else statement

D) Loops
I would like to mention 2 ways of doing ‘for’ loops in R.
a) for (i in 1:10) { statement }
> a <- seq(5,25,length=10) > a [1] 5.000000 7.222222 9.444444 11.666667 13.888889 16.111111 18.333333 [8] 20.555556 22.777778 25.000000

b) Sequence along the vector sequence. Note: This is useful as we don’t have to know the length of the vector/sequence
for (i in seq_along(a)){ + print(a[i]) + }

[1] 5
[1] 7.222222
[1] 9.444444
[1] 11.66667
…

There are others ways of looping with ‘while’ and ‘repeat’ which I have not included in this post.

R makes manipulation of matrices and data frames really easy. All the elements in a matrix are numeric while data frames can have different types for each of the element

E) Matrix
> rnorm(12,5,2) [1] 2.699961 3.160208 5.087478 3.969129 3.317840 4.551565 2.585758 2.397780 [9] 5.297535 6.574757 7.468268 2.440835

a) Create a vector of 12 random numbers with a mean of 5 and SD of 2
> a <-rnorm(12,5,2) b) Convert the vector to a matrix with 4 rows and 3 columns > mat <- matrix(a,4,3) > mat[,1] [,2] [,3] [1,] 5.197010 3.839281 9.022818 [2,] 4.053590 5.321399 5.587495 [3,] 4.225763 4.873768 6.648151 [4,] 4.709784 4.129093 2.575523

c) Subset rows 1 & 2 from the matrix
> mat[1:2,] [,1]     [,2]     [,3] [1,] 5.19701 3.839281 9.022818 [2,] 4.05359 5.321399 5.587495
d) Subset matrix a rows 1& 2 and with columns 2 & 3
> mat[1:2,2:3] [,1]     [,2] [1,] 3.839281 9.022818 [2,] 5.321399 5.587495
e) Subset matrix a for all row elements for the column 3
> mat[,3] [1] 9.022818 5.587495 6.648151 2.575523
e) Add row names and column names for the matrix as follows
> names <- c(“tim”,”pat”,”joe”,”jim”)
> v <- data.frame(names,mat)
> v names       X1       X2       X3 1   tim 5.197010 3.839281 9.022818 2   pat 4.053590 5.321399 5.587495 3   joe 4.225763 4.873768 6.648151 4   jim 4.709784 4.129093 2.575523

> colnames(v) <- c("names","a","b","c") > v names a b c 1 tim 5.197010 3.839281 9.022818 2 pat 4.053590 5.321399 5.587495 3 joe 4.225763 4.873768 6.648151 4 jim 4.709784 4.129093 2.575523

F) Data Frames
In R data frames are the most important method to manipulate large amounts of data. One can read data in .csv format into data frame using
df <- read.csv(“mydata.csv”)
To get a feel of data frames it is useful to play around with the numerous data sets that are available with the installation of R
To check the available dataframes do
>data() AirPassengers Monthly Airline Passenger Numbers 1949-1960 BJsales Sales Data with Leading Indicator BJsales.lead (BJsales) Sales Data with Leading Indicator BOD Biochemical Oxygen Demand CO2 Carbon Dioxide Uptake in Grass Plants ChickWeight Weight versus age of chicks on different diets ...
…

I will be using the mtcars data frame. Here are some of the most important commands on data frames
a) load data from mtcars
data(mtcars)
b) > head(mtcars,3) # Display the top 3 rows of the data frame mpg cyl disp hp drat wt qsec vs am gear carb Mazda RX4 21.0 6 160 110 3.90 2.620 16.46 0 1 4 4 Mazda RX4 Wag 21.0 6 160 110 3.90 2.875 17.02 0 1 4 4 Datsun 710 22.8 4 108 93 3.85 2.320 18.61 1 1 4 1

c) > tail(mtcars,4) # Display the boittom 4 rows of the data frame mpg cyl disp hp drat wt qsec vs am gear carb Ford Pantera L 15.8 8 351 264 4.22 3.17 14.5 0 1 5 4 Ferrari Dino 19.7 6 145 175 3.62 2.77 15.5 0 1 5 6 Maserati Bora 15.0 8 301 335 3.54 3.57 14.6 0 1 5 8 Volvo 142E 21.4 4 121 109 4.11 2.78 18.6 1 1 4 2

d) > names(mtcars) # Display the names of the columns of the data frame [1] "mpg" "cyl" "disp" "hp" "drat" "wt" "qsec" "vs" "am" "gear" "carb"

e) > summary(mtcars) # Display the summary of the data frame mpg cyl disp hp drat wt Min. :10.40 Min. :4.000 Min. : 71.1 Min. : 52.0 Min. :2.760 Min. :1.513 1st Qu.:15.43 1st Qu.:4.000 1st Qu.:120.8 1st Qu.: 96.5 1st Qu.:3.080 1st Qu.:2.581 Median :19.20 Median :6.000 Median :196.3 Median :123.0 Median :3.695 Median :3.325 Mean :20.09 Mean :6.188 Mean :230.7 Mean :146.7 Mean :3.597 Mean :3.217 3rd Qu.:22.80 3rd Qu.:8.000 3rd Qu.:326.0 3rd Qu.:180.0 3rd Qu.:3.920 3rd Qu.:3.610 Max. :33.90 Max. :8.000 Max. :472.0 Max. :335.0 Max. :4.930 Max. :5.424 qsec vs am gear carb Min. :14.50 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :3.000 Min. :1.000 1st Qu.:16.89 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:3.000 1st Qu.:2.000 Median :17.71 Median :0.0000 Median :0.0000 Median :4.000 Median :2.000 Mean :17.85 Mean :0.4375 Mean :0.4062 Mean :3.688 Mean :2.812 3rd Qu.:18.90 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.:4.000 3rd Qu.:4.000 Max. :22.90 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :5.000 Max. :8.000

f) > str(mtcars) # Generate a concise description of the data frame - values in each column, factors 'data.frame': 32 obs. of 11 variables: $ mpg : num 21 21 22.8 21.4 18.7 18.1 14.3 24.4 22.8 19.2 ... $ cyl : num 6 6 4 6 8 6 8 4 4 6 ... $ disp: num 160 160 108 258 360 ... $ hp : num 110 110 93 110 175 105 245 62 95 123 ... $ drat: num 3.9 3.9 3.85 3.08 3.15 2.76 3.21 3.69 3.92 3.92 ... $ wt : num 2.62 2.88 2.32 3.21 3.44 ... $ qsec: num 16.5 17 18.6 19.4 17 ... $ vs : num 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 ... $ am : num 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ... $ gear: num 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 ... $ carb: num 4 4 1 1 2 1 4 2 2 4 ...
g) > mtcars[mtcars$mpg == 10.4,] #Select all rows in mtcars where the mpg column has a value 10.4 mpg cyl disp hp drat wt qsec vs am gear carb Cadillac Fleetwood 10.4 8 472 205 2.93 5.250 17.98 0 0 3 4 Lincoln Continental 10.4 8 460 215 3.00 5.424 17.82 0 0 3 4

h) > mtcars[(mtcars$mpg >20) & (mtcars$mpg <24),] # Select all rows in mtcars where the mpg > 20 and mpg < 24 mpg cyl disp hp drat wt qsec vs am gear carb Mazda RX4 21.0 6 160.0 110 3.90 2.620 16.46 0 1 4 4 Mazda RX4 Wag 21.0 6 160.0 110 3.90 2.875 17.02 0 1 4 4 Datsun 710 22.8 4 108.0 93 3.85 2.320 18.61 1 1 4 1 Hornet 4 Drive 21.4 6 258.0 110 3.08 3.215 19.44 1 0 3 1 Merc 230 22.8 4 140.8 95 3.92 3.150 22.90 1 0 4 2 Toyota Corona 21.5 4 120.1 97 3.70 2.465 20.01 1 0 3 1 Volvo 142E 21.4 4 121.0 109 4.11 2.780 18.60 1 1 4 2

i) > myset <- mtcars[(mtcars$cyl == 6) | (mtcars$cyl == 4),] # Get all calls which are either 4 or 6 cylinder > myset mpg cyl disp hp drat wt qsec vs am gear carb Mazda RX4 21.0 6 160.0 110 3.90 2.620 16.46 0 1 4 4 Mazda RX4 Wag 21.0 6 160.0 110 3.90 2.875 17.02 0 1 4 4 Datsun 710 22.8 4 108.0 93 3.85 2.320 18.61 1 1 4 1 Hornet 4 Drive 21.4 6 258.0 110 3.08 3.215 19.44 1 0 3 1 Valiant 18.1 6 225.0 105 2.76 3.460 20.22 1 0 3 1 Merc 240D 24.4 4 146.7 62 3.69 3.190 20.00 1 0 4 2… … …

j) > mean(myset$mpg) # Determine the mean of the set created above [1] 23.97222
k) > table(mtcars$cyl) #Create a table of cars which have 4,6, or 8 cylinders

4 6 8
11 7 14

G) lapply,sapply,tapply
I use the iris data set for these commands
a) > data(iris) #Load iris data set

b)> names(iris) #Show the column names of the data set [1] "Sepal.Length" "Sepal.Width" "Petal.Length" "Petal.Width" "Species" c) > lapply(iris,class) #Show the class of all the columns in iris $Sepal.Length [1] "numeric" $Sepal.Width [1] "numeric" $Petal.Length [1] "numeric" $Petal.Width [1] "numeric" $Species [1] "factor"

d) > sapply(iris,class) # Display a summary of the class of the iris data set Sepal.Length Sepal.Width Petal.Length Petal.Width Species "numeric" "numeric" "numeric" "numeric" "factor"

e) tapply: Instead of getting the mean for each of the species as below we can use tapply > a <-iris[iris$Species == "setosa",] > mean(a$Sepal.Length) [1] 5.006 > b <-iris[iris$Species == "versicolor",] > mean(b$Sepal.Length) [1] 5.936 > c <-iris[iris$Species == "virginica",] > mean(c$Sepal.Length) [1] 6.588

> tapply(iris$Sepal.Length,iris$Species,mean)
setosa versicolor virginica
5.006 5.936 6.588

Hopefully this highly condensed version of R will set you on a R-oll.

A crime map of India in R – Crimes against women

In this post I take a look at the gory crime scene across India to determine which states are the heavy weights in crimes. Who is the undisputed champion of rapes in a year? Which state excels in cruelty by husbands and the relatives to wives? Which state leads in dowry deaths? To get the answers to these questions I perform analysis of the state-wise crime data against women with the data from Open Government Data (OGD) Platform India. The dataset for this analysis was taken for the Crime against Women from OGD.

(Do see my post Revisiting crimes against women in India which includes an interactive Shiny app)

The data in OGD is available for crimes against women in different states under different ‘crime heads’ like rape, dowry deaths, kidnapping & abduction etc. The data is available for years from 2001 to 2012. This data is plotted as a scatter plot and a linear regression line is then fit on the available data. Based on this linear model, the projected incidence of crimes likes rapes, dowry deaths, abduction & kidnapping is performed for each of the states. This is then used to build a table of different crime heads for all the states predicting the number of crimes till the year 2018. Fortunately, R crunches through the data sets quite easily. The overall projections of crimes against as women is shown below based on the linear regression for each of these states

Projections over the next couple of years
The tables below are based on the projected incidence of crimes under various categories assuming that these states maintain their torrid crime rate. A cursory look at the tables below clearly indicate the Uttar Pradesh is the undisputed heavy weight champion in 4 of 5 categories shown. Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh take 2nd and 3rd ranks in the total crimes against women and are significant contenders in other categories too.

A) Projected rapes in India
The top 3 heavy weights in projected rapes over the next 5 years are 1) Madhya Pradesh 2) Uttar Pradesh 3) Maharashtra

Full table: Rape.csv
B) Projected Dowry deaths in India

Full table: Dowry Deaths.csv
C) Kidnapping & Abduction

Full table: Kidnapping&Abduction.csv
D) Cruelty by husband & relatives

Full table: Cruelty by husbands_relatives.csv
E) Total crimes against women

Full table: Total crimes.csv
Here is a visualization of ‘Total crimes against women’ created as a choropleth map

The implementation for this analysis was done using the R language. The R code, dataset, output and the crime charts can be accessed at GitHub at crime-against-women

Directory structure
– R code
– dataset used
– output
– statewise-crime-charts

The analysis has been completely parametrized. A quick look at the implementation is shown below. A function state crime was created as given below

statecrime.R
This function (statecrime.R) does the following
a) Creates a scatter plot for the state for the crime head
b) Computes a best linear regression fir and draws this line
c) Uses the model parameters (coefficients) to compute the projected crime in the years to come
d) Writes the projected values to a text file
c) Creates a directory with the name of the state if it does not exist and stores the jpeg of the plot there.

statecrime <- function(indiacrime, row, state,crime) { year <- c(2001:2012) # Make seperate folders for each state if(!file.exists(state)) { dir.create(state) } setwd(state) crimeplot <- paste(crime,".jpg") jpeg(crimeplot)

# Plot the details of the crime
plot(year,thecrime ,pch= 15, col="red", xlab = "Year", ylab= crime, main = atitle, ,xlim=c(2001,2018),ylim=c(ymin,ymax), axes=FALSE)
A linear regression line is fit using ‘lm’

# Fit a linear regression model lmfit <-lm(thecrime~year) # Draw the lmfit line abline(lmfit)

The model parameters are then used to draw the line and also project for the next 5 years from 2013 to 2018

nyears <-c(2013:2018) nthecrime <- rep(0,length(nyears)) # Projected crime incidents from 2013 to 2018 using a linear regression model for (i in seq_along(nyears)) { nthecrime[i] <- lmfit$coefficients[2] * nyears[i] + lmfit$coefficients[1] }

The projected data for each state is appended into an appropriate file which is then used to display the tables at the top of this post

# Write the projected crime rate in a file
nthecrime <- round(nthecrime,2) nthecrime <- c(state, nthecrime, "\n") print(nthecrime) #write(nthecrime,file=fileconn, ncolumns=9, append=TRUE,sep="\t") filename <- paste(crime,".txt") # Write the output in the ./output directory setwd("./output") cat(nthecrime, file=filename, sep=",",append=TRUE)

The above function is then repeatedly called for each state for the different crime heads. (Note: It is possible to check the read both the states and crime heads with R and perform the computation repeatedly. However, I have done this the manual way!)

crimereport.R
# 1. Andhra Pradesh i <- 1 statecrime(indiacrime, i, "Andhra Pradesh","Rape") i <- i+38 statecrime(indiacrime, i, "Andhra Pradesh","Kidnapping& Abduction") i <- i+38 statecrime(indiacrime, i, "Andhra Pradesh","Dowry Deaths") i <- i+38 statecrime(indiacrime, i, "Andhra Pradesh","Assault on Women") i <- i+38 statecrime(indiacrime, i, "Andhra Pradesh","Insult to modesty") i <- i+38 statecrime(indiacrime, i, "Andhra Pradesh","Cruelty by husband_relatives") i <- i+38 statecrime(indiacrime, i, "Andhra Pradesh","Imporation of girls from foreign country") i <- i+38 statecrime(indiacrime, i, "Andhra Pradesh","Immoral traffic act") i <- i+38 statecrime(indiacrime, i, "Andhra Pradesh","Dowry prohibition act") i <- i+38 statecrime(indiacrime, i, "Andhra Pradesh","Indecent representation of Women Act") i <- i+38 statecrime(indiacrime, i, "Andhra Pradesh","Commission of Sati Act") i <- i+38 statecrime(indiacrime, i, "Andhra Pradesh","Total crimes against women") ... ...

and so on for all the states

Charts for different crimes against women

1) Uttar Pradesh

The plots for Uttar Pradesh are shown below

Rapes in UP

Dowry deaths in UP

Cruelty by husband/relative

Total crimes against women in Uttar Pradesh

You can find more charts in GitHub by clicking Uttar Pradesh

2) Maharashtra : Some of the charts for Maharashtra

Rape

Kidnapping & Abduction

Total crimes against women in Maharashtra

More crime charts for Maharashtra

Crime charts can be accessed for the following states from GitHub ( in alphabetical order)

3) Andhra Pradesh
4) Arunachal Pradesh
5) Assam
6) Bihar
7) Chattisgarh
8) Delhi (Added as an exception based on its notoriety)
9) Goa
10) Gujarat
11) Haryana
12) Himachal Pradesh
13) Jammu & Kashmir
14) Jharkhand
15) Karnataka
16) Kerala
17) Madhya Pradesh
18) Manipur
19) Meghalaya
20) Mizoram
21) Nagaland
22) Odisha
23) Punjab
24) Rajasthan
25) Sikkim
26) Tamil Nadu
27) Tripura
28) Uttarkhand
29) West Bengal

The code, dataset and the charts can be cloned/forked from GitHub at crime-against-women

Let me know if you find any interesting patterns in the data.
Thoughts, comments welcome!

A peek into literacy in India: Statistical Learning with R

In this post I take a peek into the literacy landscape across India as a whole using R language. The dataset from Open Government Data (OGD) platform India was used for this purpose. This data is based on the 2011 census. The XL sheets for the states were downloaded for data for each state. The Union Territories were not included in the analysis.

A thin slice of the data from each data set was taken from the data for each individual state (Note: This could also have been done from the consolidated india.xls XL sheet which I came to know of, much later).

I calculate the following for age group

Males (%) attending education institutions = (Males attending educational institutions * 100)/ Total males
Females (%) attending education institutions = (Females attending educational institutions * 100)/ Total Females

This is then plotted as a bar chart with the age distribution. I then overlay the national average for each state over the barchart to check whether the literacy in the state is above or below the national average. The implementation in R is included below

The code and data can be forked/cloned from GitHub at india-literacy

The results based on the analysis is given below.

Kerala is clearly the top ranker with the literacy rates for both males and females well above the average
The states with above average literacy are – Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Punjab, Uttarakhand
The states with just about average literacy – Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal
The states with below average literacy – Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Rajasthan

A brief implementation of the basic code in R is shown bwelow

# Read the Arunachal Pradhesh literacy related data arunachal = read.csv("arunachal.csv") # Create as a matrix arunachalmat = as.matrix(arunachal) arunachalTotal = arunachalmat[2:19,7:28] # Take transpose as this is necessary for plotting bar charts arunachalmat = t(arunachalTotal) # Set the scipen option to format the y axis (otherwise prints as e^05 etc.) getOption("scipen") opt <- options("scipen" = 20) getOption("scipen") #Create a vector of total Males & Females arunachalTotalM = arunachalmat[3,] arunachalTotalF = arunachalmat[4,] #Create a vector of males & females attending education institution arunachalM = arunachalmat[6,] arunachalF = arunachalmat[7,] #Calculate percent of males attending education of total arunachalpercentM = round(as.numeric(arunachalM) *100/as.numeric(arunachalTotalM),1) barplot(arunachalpercentM,names.arg=arunachalmat[1,],main ="Percentage males attending educational institutions in Arunachal Pradesh", xlab = "Age", ylab= "Percentage",ylim = c(0,100), col ="lightblue", legend= c("Males")) points(age,indiapercentM,pch=15) lines(age,indiapercentM,col="red",pch=20,lty=2,lwd=3) legend( x="bottomright", legend=c("National average"), col=c("red"), bty="n" , lwd=1, lty=c(2), pch=c(15) ) #Calculate percent of females attending education of total arunachalpercentF = round(as.numeric(arunachalF) *100/as.numeric(arunachalTotalF),1) barplot(arunachalpercentF,names.arg=arunachalmat[1,],main ="Percentage females attending educational institutions in Arunachal Pradesh ", xlab = "Age", ylab= "Percentage", ylim = c(0,100), col ="lightblue", legend= c("Females")) points(age,indiapercentF,pch=15) lines(age,indiapercentF,col="red",pch=20,lty=2,lwd=3) legend( x="bottomright", legend=c("National average"), col=c("red"), bty="n" , lwd=1, lty=c(2), pch=c(15) )

A) Overall plot for India

a) India – Males

b) India – females

The plots for each individual state is given below

1) Literacy in Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu is slightly over the national average. The women seem to do marginally better than the males

a) Tamil Nadu – males

b) Tamil Nadu – females

2) Literacy in Uttar Pradesh

UP is slightly below the national average. Women are comparatively below men here

a) Uttar Pradesh – males

b) Uttar Pradesh – females

3) Literacy in Bihar

Bihar is well below the national average for both men and women

a) Bihar – males

b) Bihar – females

4. Literacy in Kerala

Kerala is the winner all the way in literacy with almost 100% literacy across all age groups

a) Kerala – males

b) Kerala -females

5. Literacy in Andhra Pradesh

AP just meets the national average for literacy.

a) Andhra Pradesh – males

b) Andhra Pradesh – females

6. Literacy in Arunachal Pradesh

Arunachal Pradesh is below average for most of the age groups

a) Arunachal Pradesh – males

b) Arunachal Pradesh – females

7. Literacy in Assam

Assam is below national average

a) Assam – males

b) Assam – females

8. Literacy in Chattisgarh

Chattisgarh is on par with the national average for both men and women

a) Chattisgarh – males

b) Chattisgarh – females

9. Literacy in Gujarat

Gujarat is just about average

a) Gujarat – males

b) Gujarat – females

10. Literacy in Haryana

Haryana is slightly above average

a) Haryana – males

b) Haryana – females

11. Literacy in Himachal Pradesh

Himachal Pradesh is cool and above average.

a) Himachal Pradesh – males

b) Himachal Pradesh – females

12. Literacy in Jammu and Kashmir

J & K is marginally below average

a) Jammu and Kashmir – males

b) Jammu and Kashmir – females

13. Literacy in Jharkhand

Jharkhand is some ways below average

a) Jharkhand – males

b) Jharkhand – females

14. Literacy in Karnataka

Karnataka is on average for men. Womem seem to do better than men here

a) Karnataka – males

b) Karnataka – females

15. Literacy in Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh meets the national average

a) Madhya Pradesh – males

b) Madhya Pradesh – females

16. Literacy in Maharashtra

Maharashtra is front-runner in literacy

a) Maharashtra – females

b) Maharastra – females

17. Literacy in Odisha

Odisha meets national average

a) Odisha – males

b) Odisha – females

18. Literacy in Punjab

Punjab is marginally above average with women doing even better

a) Punjab – males

b) Punjab – females

19. Literacy in Rajasthan

Rajasthan is average for males and below average for females

a) Rajasthan – males

b) Rajasthan – females

20. Literacy in Uttarakhand

Uttarakhand rocks and is above average

a) Uttarakhand – males

b) Uttarakhand – females

21. Literacy in West Bengal

West Bengal just about meets the national average.

a) West Bengal – males

b) West Bengal – females

The code can be cloned/forked from GitHub india-literacy. I have done my analysis on the overall data. The data is further sub-divided across districts in each state and further into urban and rural. Many different ways of analysing are possible. One method is shown here

Conclusion

Kerala is clearly head and shoulders above all states when it comes to literacy
Many states are above average. They are Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Punjab, Uttarakhand
States with average literacy are – Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal
States which fall below the national average are – Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Rajasthan

Statistical learning with R: A look at literacy in Tamil Nadu

In this post I make my first foray into data mining using the R language. As a start, I picked up the data from the Open Government Data (OGD Platform of India from the Ministry of Human Resources. There are many data sets under Education. To get started I picked the data set on Tamil Nadu which deals with the population attending educational institutions by age, sex and institution type. Similar data is available for all states.

I wanted to start off on a small scale, primarily to checkout some of the features of the R language. R is clearly the language of choice for processing large amounts of data. R has close to 4000+ packages that can do various things like statistical, regression analysis etc. However I found this is no easy task. There are a zillion ways in which you can take cross-sections of a large dataset. Some of them will provide useful insights while others will lead you nowhere.

Also see my post Literacy in India – A deepR dive!

Data science, which is predicted to be the technology of the future based on with the mountains of data being generated daily, will in my opinion, will be more of an art and less of a science. There will be wizards who will be able to spot remarkable truths in the mundane data while others will not be that successful.

Anyway back to my attempt to divine intelligence in the Tamil Nadu(TN) literacy data. The data downloaded was an Excel sheet with 1767 rows and 28 columns. The first 60 rows deal with the overall statistics of literacy in Tamil Nadu state as a whole. Further below are the statistics on the individual districts of Tamil nadu.
Each of this is further divided into urban and rural parts. The data covers persons from the age of 4 upto the age of 60 and whether they attended school, college, vocational institute etc. To make my initial attempt manageable I have just focused on the data for Tamil Nadu state as a whole including the breakup of the urban and rural data.

My analysis is included below. The code and the dataset for this implementation is in R language and can be cloned from GitHub at tamilnadu-literacy-analysis

Analysis of Tamil Nadu (total)
The total population of Tamil Nadu based on an age breakup is shown below

1) Total population Tamil Nadu

2) Males & Females attending education institutions in TN

There are marginally more males attending educational institutions. Also the number of persons attending educational institutions seems to drop from 11 years of age. There is a spike around 20-24 years and people go to school and college at this age. See pie chart 8) below

3) Percentage of males attending educational institution of the total males

4) Percentage females attending educational institutions in TN

There is a very similar trend between males and females. The attendance peaks between 9 – 11 years of age and then falls to roughly 50% around 15-19 years and rapidly falls off

5) Boys and girls attending school in TN

For some reason there is a marked increase for boys and girls around 20-24. Possibly people repeat classes around this age

6) Persons attending college in TN

7) Educational institutions attended by persons between 15- 19 years

8) Educational institutions attended by persons between 20-24

As can be seen there is a large percentage (30%) of people in the 20-24 age group who are in school. This is probably the reason for the spike in “Boys and girls attending school in TN” see 2) for the 20-24 years of age

Education in rural Tamil Nadu

1) Total rural population Tamil Nadu

2) Males & Females attending education institutions in rural TN3) Percentage of rural males attending educational institution

4) Percentage females attending educational institutions in rural TN of total females

The persons attending education drops rapidly to 40% between 15-19 years of age for both males and females

5) Boys and girls attending school in rural TN

6) Persons attending college in rural TN

7) Educational institutions attended by persons between 15- 19 years in rural TN

8) Educational institutions attended by persons between 20-24 in rural TN

As can be seen there is a large percentage (39%) of rural people in the 20-24 age group who are in school

Education in urban Tamil Nadu

1) Total population in urban Tamil Nadu

2) Males & Females attending education institutions in urban TN3) Percentage of males attending educational institution of the total males in urban TN4) Percentage females attending educational institutions in urban TN

5) Boys and girls attending school in urban TN

6) Persons attending college in urban TN

7) Educational institutions attended by persons between 15- 19 years in urban TN

8) Educational institutions attended by persons between 20-24 in urban TN

As can be seen there is a large percentage (25%) of rural people in the 20-24 age group who are in school

The R implementation and the Tamil Nadu dataset can be cloned from my repository in GitHub at tamilnadu-literacy-analysis

The above analysis is just one of a million possible ways the data can be analyzed and visually represented. I hope to hone my skill as progress along in similar analysis.

Hasta la vista! I’ll be back.

Watch this space!

Divining Twitterverse with R

In this post I continue my journey into Twitterverse with R and capture the tweet frequency for the hashtags #NaMo, #AAP and #RaGa over the last 7 days. This seemed the most appropriate thing to do given that the 16^th Indian General Election 2014 is just around the corner. The handshake that has to be established with Twitter is the same as mentioned in my last post “To R is human …”

Here is a great blog post on measuring tweet frequencies – Getting Genetics done by Stephen Turner.

Once the initial handshake is done the following has to be done. It appears that searchTwitter can only search tweets within the last 7 days and that too for a maximum of 1500 tweets.

This is done as follows for the hashtag #NaMo. The dates variable creates 7 date strings. The for loop performs a searchTwitter everyday for the last 7 days

#Search the last 7 days for the hashtag #NaMo everyday

dates <- paste(“2014-03-“,10:17,sep=””) # need to go to 18th to catch tweets from 17th

for (i in 2:length(dates)) {

print(paste(dates[i-1], dates[i]))

tweets <- c(tweets, searchTwitter(“#Namo”, since=dates[i-1], until=dates[i], n=1500))

}

The tweets are then converted to dataframes for processing

# Create a dataframe from the tweets

tweets <- twListToDF(tweets)

tweets <- unique(tweets)

Finally the tweets are plotted using ggplot

#Plot the frequency of tweets in 2 hour windows

minutes <- 120

ggplot(data=tweets, aes(x=created)) +

geom_bar(aes(fill=..count..), binwidth=60*minutes) +

scale_x_datetime(“Date”) +

scale_y_continuous(“Frequency”) +

opts(title=”#NaMo Tweet Frequency March 11-17″, legend.position=’none’)

ggsave(file=’NaMo-frequency.png’, width=7, height=7, dpi=100)

The plot for #NaMo is shown below

The same is performed for

#AAP

And for #RaGa

While the number of tweets for #NaMo is very high, #RaGa seems to occur in lower number but consistently everyday

Of course we can check the tweets whether is sentiment is positive or negative for the hashtags. Thats for another day though.

The code can be cloned at Rtweet-frequency

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To R is human …

“To R is human, to dabble in it fun” one could say. In this post I try to be a little of Nate Silver looking at Twiiterverse. Since the Indian general election 2014 is around the corner for constituting the 16th Lok Sabha in India I wanted to play around a little bit. Anyway here goes.

To get started on Twitter, with R we first need to establish a handshake between Twitter and R. We need to authenticate our R application with Twitter to enable us to mine the tweets in Twitterverse.. The steps are fairly straightforward. The R app you create has to authenticated and authorized with Twitter.

The first step is to create an app at Twitter at http://dev.twitter.com.. Login to your twitter account. Click the drop down at your photo and choose “My applications”. Then click “Create new application”. Now do the following
– Enter a unique name for your application
– Enter a description
– For the ‘Website’ enter any valid URL
– Leave the Callback URL blank
– Accept the conditions

Leave this in your browser. The handshake between your R application and Twitter needs to be established as follows

#install the necessary packages install.packages("ROAuth") install.packages("twitteR") install.packages("wordcloud") install.packages("tm")

library("ROAuth") library("twitteR") library("wordcloud") library("tm") library(RCurl)
# Set SSL certs globally options(RCurlOptions = list(cainfo = system.file("CurlSSL", "cacert.pem", package = "RCurl")))

require(twitteR) reqURL <- "https://api.twitter.com/oauth/request_token" accessURL <- "https://api.twitter.com/oauth/access_token" authURL <- "https://api.twitter.com/oauth/authorize"

Now go to your browser. In the created Twitter application, choose the API Keys tab. Copy and paste the API key and API secret in the next 2 lines

apiKey <- "Your API key here" apiSecret <- "Your API secret here" twitCred twitCred$handshake(cainfo = system.file("CurlSSL", "cacert.pem", package = "RCurl"))

When you enter this you should see the following
To enable the connection, please direct your web browser to:
https://api.twitter.com/oauth/authorize?oauth_token=WnTGL4eHsiNJRFRiW1UU3GoYSvVZiYDBbO3WAsZO

Copy and paste the link given in a new tab in your browser. Copy the 7 digit PIN and paste it in the space below
When complete, record the PIN given to you and provide it here: 7377963

registerTwitterOAuth(twitCred)

This should complete the authorization. Now you are good to go.

Here is a short example of performing Text Mining with the help of package “tm”.

I wanted to create a word cloud around the hashtag #NaMo

So here is the code. We need to create a Corpus

#Search Twitter for the hashtag #NaMo

#Search Twitter for the hashtag #NaMo r_stats<- searchTwitter("#NaMo",n=500, cainfo="cacert.pem")

# Save text

r_stats_text <- sapply(r_stats, function(x) x$getText())

# Create a corpus

r_stats_text_corpus <- Corpus(VectorSource(r_stats_text))

# Clean up the text

r_stats_text_corpus <- tm_map(r_stats_text_corpus, tolower)

r_stats_text_corpus <- tm_map(r_stats_text_corpus, removePunctuation)

r_stats_text_corpus <- tm_map(r_stats_text_corpus, function(x)removeWords(x,stopwords()))

# Now create a word cloud
wordcloud(r_stats_text_corpus)

This will create a Wordcloud of the words most used with the hashtag, in this case #NaMo

You can clone the code at Rwordcloud

Watch this space. Hasta la vista. I’ll be back!

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The language R

In the universe of programming languages there is a rising staR. It is moving fasteR and getting biggeR and brighteR!

Ok, you get the hint! It is the language R or the R Language.

R language is the successor to the language S. R is extremely powerful for statistical computing and processing. It is an interpreted language much like Python, Perl. The power of the language R comes from the 4000+ software packages that make the R language almost indispensable for any type of statistical computing.

As I mentioned above in my opinion, R, is soon going to play a central role in the technological world. In today’s world we are flooded with data from all sides. To make sense of this information overload we need techniques like Big Data, Analytics and machine learning to make sense of this data deluge. This is where R with its numerous packages that make short work of data becomes critical. The packages also have very interesting graphic packages to display the data in many forms for faster analysis and easier consumption.

The language R can easily ingest large sets of data in CSV format and perform many computations on them. R language is being used in machine learning, data mining, classification and clustering, text mining besides also being utilized in sentiment analysis from social networks.

The R language contains the usual programming constructs namely logical, loops, assignment etc. The language enables to easily assign values to vectors, matrices, arrays and perform all the associated operations on them.

The R Language can be installed from R-project. The R Language package comes with many datasets which are data collected from various sources. One such dataset is the Iris dataset. The Iris dataset is dataset about the Iris plant( Iris is a genus of 260–300[1][2] species of flowering plants with showy flowers).

The dataset contains 5 parameters

1) Sepal length 2) Sepal Width 3) Petal length 4) Petal width 5) Species

This dataset has been used in many research papers. R allows you to easily perform any sophisticated set of statistical operations on this data set. Included below are a sample set of operations you can perform on the Iris dataset or any dataset

> iris[1:5,]

Sepal.Length Sepal.Width Petal.Length Petal.Width Species

1 5.1 3.5 1.4 0.2 setosa

2 4.9 3.0 1.4 0.2 setosa

3 4.7 3.2 1.3 0.2 setosa

4 4.6 3.1 1.5 0.2 setosa

5 5.0 3.6 1.4 0.2 setosa

> summary(iris)

Sepal.Length Sepal.Width Petal.Length Petal.Width Species

Min. :4.300 Min. :2.000 Min. :1.000 Min. :0.100 setosa :50

1st Qu.:5.100 1st Qu.:2.800 1st Qu.:1.600 1st Qu.:0.300 versicolor:50

Median :5.800 Median :3.000 Median :4.350 Median :1.300 virginica :50

Mean :5.843 Mean :3.057 Mean :3.758 Mean :1.199

3rd Qu.:6.400 3rd Qu.:3.300 3rd Qu.:5.100 3rd Qu.:1.800

Max. :7.900 Max. :4.400 Max. :6.900 Max. :2.500

>hist(iris$Sepal.Length)

Here is a scatter plot of the Petal width, sepal length and sepal width

>scatterplot3d(iris$Petal.Width, iris$Sepal.Length, iris$Sepal.Width)

As can be seen R can really make short work of data with the numerous packages that come along with it. I have just skimmed the surface of R language.

I hope this has whetted your appetite. Do give R a spin!

Watch this space!

Also see
1. Designing a Social Web Portal
2. Design principles of scalable, distributed systems
3. A Cloud Medley with IBM’s Bluemix, Cloudant and Node.js
4. Programming Zen and now – Some essential tips -2
5. Fun simulation of a Chain in Android

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