GooglyPlusPlus: Win Probability using Deep Learning and player embeddings

In my last post ‘GooglyPlusPlus now with Win Probability Analysis for all T20 matches‘ I had discussed the performance of my ML models, created with and without player embeddings, in computing the Win Probability of T20 matches. With batsman & bowler embeddings I got much better performance than without the embeddings

glmnet – Accuracy – 0.73
Random Forest (RF) – Accuracy – 0.92

While the Random Forest gave excellent accuracy, it was bulky and also took an unusually long time to predict the Win Probability of a single T20 match. The above 2 ML models were built using R’s Tidymodels. glmnet was fast, but I wanted to see if I could create a ML model that was better, lighter and faster. I had initially tried to use Tensorflow, Keras in Python but then abandoned it, since I did not know how to port the Deep Learning model to R and use in my app GooglyPlusPlus.

But later, since I was stuck with a bulky Random Forest model, I decided to again explore options for saving the Keras Deep Learning model and loading it in R. I found out that saving the model as .h5, we can load it in R and use it for predictions. Hence, I rebuilt a Deep Learning model using Keras, Python with player embeddings and I got excellent performance. The DL model was light and had an accuracy 0.8639 with an ROC_AUC of 0.964 which was great!

GooglyPlusPlus uses data from Cricsheet and is based on my R package yorkr

You can try out this latest version of GooglyPlusPlus at gpp2023-1

Here are the steps

A. Build a Keras Deep Learning model

a. Import necessary packages

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from zipfile import ZipFile
import tensorflow as tf
from tensorflow import keras
from tensorflow.keras import layers
from tensorflow.keras import regularizers
from pathlib import Path
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

b, Upload the data of all 9 T20 leagues (BBL, CPL, IPL, T20 (men) , T20(women), NTB, CPL, SSM, WBB)

# Read all T20 leagues 
df1=pd.read_csv('t20.csv')
print("Shape of dataframe=",df1.shape)

# Create training and test data set
train_dataset = df1.sample(frac=0.8,random_state=0)
test_dataset = df1.drop(train_dataset.index)
train_dataset1 = train_dataset[['batsmanIdx','bowlerIdx','ballNum','ballsRemaining','runs','runRate','numWickets','runsMomentum','perfIndex']]
test_dataset1 = test_dataset[['batsmanIdx','bowlerIdx','ballNum','ballsRemaining','runs','runRate','numWickets','runsMomentum','perfIndex']]
train_dataset1

# Set the target data
train_labels = train_dataset.pop('isWinner')
test_labels = test_dataset.pop('isWinner')
train_dataset1

a=train_dataset1.describe()
stats=a.transpose
a

c. Create a Deep Learning ML model using batsman & bowler embeddings

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from keras.layers import Input, Embedding, Flatten, Dense
from keras.models import Model
from keras.layers import Input, Embedding, Flatten, Dense, Reshape, Concatenate, Dropout
from keras.models import Model

# Set seed
tf.random.set_seed(432)

# create input layers for each of the predictors
batsmanIdx_input = Input(shape=(1,), name='batsmanIdx')
bowlerIdx_input = Input(shape=(1,), name='bowlerIdx')
ballNum_input = Input(shape=(1,), name='ballNum')
ballsRemaining_input = Input(shape=(1,), name='ballsRemaining')
runs_input = Input(shape=(1,), name='runs')
runRate_input = Input(shape=(1,), name='runRate')
numWickets_input = Input(shape=(1,), name='numWickets')
runsMomentum_input = Input(shape=(1,), name='runsMomentum')
perfIndex_input = Input(shape=(1,), name='perfIndex')

# Set the embedding size as the 4th root of unique batsmen, bowlers
no_of_unique_batman=len(df1["batsmanIdx"].unique()) 
no_of_unique_bowler=len(df1["bowlerIdx"].unique()) 
embedding_size_bat = no_of_unique_batman ** (1/4)
embedding_size_bwl = no_of_unique_bowler ** (1/4)


# create embedding layer for the categorical predictor
batsmanIdx_embedding = Embedding(input_dim=no_of_unique_batman+1, output_dim=16,input_length=1)(batsmanIdx_input)
batsmanIdx_flatten = Flatten()(batsmanIdx_embedding)
bowlerIdx_embedding = Embedding(input_dim=no_of_unique_bowler+1, output_dim=16,input_length=1)(bowlerIdx_input)
bowlerIdx_flatten = Flatten()(bowlerIdx_embedding)

# concatenate all the predictors
x = keras.layers.concatenate([batsmanIdx_flatten,bowlerIdx_flatten, ballNum_input, ballsRemaining_input, runs_input, runRate_input, numWickets_input, runsMomentum_input, perfIndex_input])

# add hidden layers
# Use dropouts for regularisation
x = Dense(64, activation='relu')(x)
x = Dropout(0.1)(x)
x = Dense(32, activation='relu')(x)
x = Dropout(0.1)(x)
x = Dense(16, activation='relu')(x)
x = Dropout(0.1)(x)
x = Dense(8, activation='relu')(x)
x = Dropout(0.1)(x)

# add output layer
output = Dense(1, activation='sigmoid', name='output')(x)
print(output.shape)

# create a DL model
model = Model(inputs=[batsmanIdx_input,bowlerIdx_input, ballNum_input, ballsRemaining_input, runs_input, runRate_input, numWickets_input, runsMomentum_input, perfIndex_input], outputs=output)
model.summary()

# compile model
optimizer=keras.optimizers.Adam(learning_rate=.01, beta_1=0.9, beta_2=0.999, epsilon=1e-07, decay=0.0, amsgrad=True)

model.compile(optimizer=optimizer, loss='binary_crossentropy', metrics=['accuracy'])

# train the model
history=model.fit([train_dataset1['batsmanIdx'],train_dataset1['bowlerIdx'],train_dataset1['ballNum'],train_dataset1['ballsRemaining'],train_dataset1['runs'],
           train_dataset1['runRate'],train_dataset1['numWickets'],train_dataset1['runsMomentum'],train_dataset1['perfIndex']], train_labels, epochs=40, batch_size=1024,
          validation_data = ([test_dataset1['batsmanIdx'],test_dataset1['bowlerIdx'],test_dataset1['ballNum'],test_dataset1['ballsRemaining'],test_dataset1['runs'],
           test_dataset1['runRate'],test_dataset1['numWickets'],test_dataset1['runsMomentum'],test_dataset1['perfIndex']],test_labels), verbose=1)

plt.plot(history.history["loss"])
plt.plot(history.history["val_loss"])
plt.title("model loss")
plt.ylabel("loss")
plt.xlabel("epoch")
plt.legend(["train", "test"], loc="upper left")
plt.show()

Model: "model_5"
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
 Layer (type)                   Output Shape         Param #     Connected to                     
==================================================================================================
 batsmanIdx (InputLayer)        [(None, 1)]          0           []                               
                                                                                                  
 bowlerIdx (InputLayer)         [(None, 1)]          0           []                               
                                                                                                  
 embedding_10 (Embedding)       (None, 1, 16)        75888       ['batsmanIdx[0][0]']             
                                                                                                  
 embedding_11 (Embedding)       (None, 1, 16)        55808       ['bowlerIdx[0][0]']              
                                                                                                  
 flatten_10 (Flatten)           (None, 16)           0           ['embedding_10[0][0]']           
                                                                                                  
 flatten_11 (Flatten)           (None, 16)           0           ['embedding_11[0][0]']           
                                                                                                  
 ballNum (InputLayer)           [(None, 1)]          0           []                               
                                                                                                  
 ballsRemaining (InputLayer)    [(None, 1)]          0           []                               
                                                                                                  
 runs (InputLayer)              [(None, 1)]          0           []                               
                                                                                                  
 runRate (InputLayer)           [(None, 1)]          0           []                               
                                                                                                  
 numWickets (InputLayer)        [(None, 1)]          0           []                               
                                                                                                  
 runsMomentum (InputLayer)      [(None, 1)]          0           []                               
                                                                                                  
 perfIndex (InputLayer)         [(None, 1)]          0           []                               
                                                                                                  
 concatenate_5 (Concatenate)    (None, 39)           0           ['flatten_10[0][0]',             
                                                                  'flatten_11[0][0]',             
                                                                  'ballNum[0][0]',                
                                                                  'ballsRemaining[0][0]',         
                                                                  'runs[0][0]',                   
                                                                  'runRate[0][0]',                
                                                                  'numWickets[0][0]',             
                                                                  'runsMomentum[0][0]',           
                                                                  'perfIndex[0][0]']              
                                                                                                  
 dense_19 (Dense)               (None, 64)           2560        ['concatenate_5[0][0]']          
                                                                                                  
 dropout_19 (Dropout)           (None, 64)           0           ['dense_19[0][0]']               
                                                                                                  
 dense_20 (Dense)               (None, 32)           2080        ['dropout_19[0][0]']             
                                                                                                  
 dropout_20 (Dropout)           (None, 32)           0           ['dense_20[0][0]']               
                                                                                                  
 dense_21 (Dense)               (None, 16)           528         ['dropout_20[0][0]']             
                                                                                                  
 dropout_21 (Dropout)           (None, 16)           0           ['dense_21[0][0]']               
                                                                                                  
 dense_22 (Dense)               (None, 8)            136         ['dropout_21[0][0]']             
                                                                                                  
 dropout_22 (Dropout)           (None, 8)            0           ['dense_22[0][0]']               
                                                                                                  
 output (Dense)                 (None, 1)            9           ['dropout_22[0][0]']             
                                                                                                  
==================================================================================================
Total params: 137,009
Trainable params: 137,009
Non-trainable params: 0
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Epoch 1/40
937/937 [==============================] - 11s 10ms/step - loss: 0.5683 - accuracy: 0.6968 - val_loss: 0.4480 - val_accuracy: 0.7708
Epoch 2/40
937/937 [==============================] - 9s 10ms/step - loss: 0.4477 - accuracy: 0.7721 - val_loss: 0.4305 - val_accuracy: 0.7833
Epoch 3/40
937/937 [==============================] - 9s 10ms/step - loss: 0.4229 - accuracy: 0.7832 - val_loss: 0.3984 - val_accuracy: 0.7936
...
...
937/937 [==============================] - 10s 10ms/step - loss: 0.2909 - accuracy: 0.8627 - val_loss: 0.2943 - val_accuracy: 0.8613
Epoch 38/40
937/937 [==============================] - 10s 10ms/step - loss: 0.2892 - accuracy: 0.8633 - val_loss: 0.2933 - val_accuracy: 0.8621
Epoch 39/40
937/937 [==============================] - 10s 10ms/step - loss: 0.2889 - accuracy: 0.8638 - val_loss: 0.2941 - val_accuracy: 0.8620
Epoch 40/40
937/937 [==============================] - 10s 11ms/step - loss: 0.2886 - accuracy: 0.8639 - val_loss: 0.2929 - val_accuracy: 0.8621

d. Compute and plot the ROC-AUC for the above model

from sklearn.metrics import roc_curve

# Select a random sample set
tf.random.set_seed(59)
train = df1.sample(frac=0.9,random_state=0)
test = df1.drop(train_dataset.index)
test_dataset1 = test[['batsmanIdx','bowlerIdx','ballNum','ballsRemaining','runs','runRate','numWickets','runsMomentum','perfIndex']]
test_labels = test.pop('isWinner')

# Compute the predicted values
y_pred_keras = model.predict([test_dataset1['batsmanIdx'],test_dataset1['bowlerIdx'],test_dataset1['ballNum'],test_dataset1['ballsRemaining'],test_dataset1['runs'],
           test_dataset1['runRate'],test_dataset1['numWickets'],test_dataset1['runsMomentum'],test_dataset1['perfIndex']]).ravel()

# Compute TPR & FPR
fpr_keras, tpr_keras, thresholds_keras = roc_curve(test_labels, y_pred_keras)

fpr_keras, tpr_keras, thresholds_keras = roc_curve(test_labels, y_pred_keras)
from sklearn.metrics import auc

# Plot the Area Under the Curve (AUC)
auc_keras = auc(fpr_keras, tpr_keras)
plt.figure(1)
plt.plot([0, 1], [0, 1], 'k--')
plt.plot(fpr_keras, tpr_keras, label='Keras (area = {:.3f})'.format(auc_keras))
plt.xlabel('False positive rate')
plt.ylabel('True positive rate')
plt.title('ROC curve')
plt.legend(loc='best')
plt.show()

The ROC_AUC for the Deep Learning Model is 0.946 as seen below

e. Save the Keras model for use in Python

from keras.models import Model
model.save("wpDL.h5")

f. Load the model in R using rhdf5 package for use in GooglyPlusPlus

library(rhdf5)
dl_model <- load_model_hdf5('wpDL.h5')

This was a huge success for me to be able to create the Deep Learning model in Python and use it in my Shiny app GooglyPlusPlus. The Deep Learning Keras model is light-weight and extremely fast.

The Deep Learning model has now been integrated into GooglyPlusPlus. Now you can check the Win Probability using both a) glmnet (Logistic Regression with lasso regularisation) b) Keras Deep Learning model with dropouts as regularisation

In addition I have created 2 features based on Win Probability (WP)

i) Win Probability (Side-by-side – Plot(interactive) : With this functionality the 1st and 2nd innings will be side-by-side. When the 1st innings is played by team 1, the Win Probability of team 2 = 100 – WP (team1). Similarly, when the 2nd innings is being played by team 2, the Win Probability of team1 = 100 – WP (team 2)

ii) Win Probability (Overlapping) – Plot (static): With this functionality the Win Probabilities of both team1(1st innings) & team 2 (2nd innings) are displayed overlapping, so that we can see how the probabilities vary ball-by-ball.

Note: Since the same UI is used for all match functions I had to re-use the Plot(interactive) and Plot(static) radio buttons for Win Probability (Side-by-side) and Win Probability(Overlapping) respectively

Here are screenshots using both ML models with both functionality for some random matches

B) ICC T20 Men World Cup – Netherland-South Africa- 2022-11-06

i) Match Worm wicket chart

ii) Win Probability with LR (Side-by-Side- Plot(interactive))

iii) Win Probability LR (Overlapping- Plot(static))

iv) Win Probability Deep Learning (Side-by-side – Plot(interactive)

In the 213th ball of the innings South Africa was slightly ahead of Netherlands. After that they crashed and burned!

v) Win Probability Deep Learning (Overlapping – Plot (static)

It can be seen that in the 94th ball of both innings South Africa was ahead of Netherlands before the eventual slump.

C) Intl. T20 (Women) India – New Zealand – 2020 – 02 – 27

Here is an interesting match between India and New Zealand T20 Women’s teams. NZ successfully chased the India’s total in a wildly swinging fortunes. See the charts below

i) Match Worm Wicket chart

ii) Win Probability with LR (Side-by-side – Plot (interactive)

iii) Win Probability with LR (Overlapping – Plot (static)

iv) Win Probability with DL model (Side-by-side – Plot (interactive))

v) Win Probability with DL model (Overlapping – Plot (static))

The above functionality in plotting the Win Probability using LR or DL with both options (Side-by-side or Overlapping) is available for all 9 T20 leagues currently supported by GooglyPlusPlus.

Go ahead and give gpp2023-1 a try!!!

Do also check out my other posts’

To see all posts click Index of posts

Using embeddings, collaborative filtering with Deep Learning to analyse T20 players

There is a school of thought which considers that total runs scored and strike rate for a batsman, or total wickets taken and economy rate for a bowler, do not tell the whole story. This is true to a fair extent. The runs scored or the wickets taken could have been against weaker teams and hence the runs, strike rate or the wickets and economy rate alone do not capture all the performance details of the batsman or bowler. A technique to determine the performance of batsmen against different bowlers and identify the batsman’s possible performance even against bowlers he/she has not yet faced could be done with collaborative filtering. Collaborative filtering, with embeddings can also be used to group players with similar characteristics. Similarly, we could also identify the performance of bowlers versus different batsmen. Hence we need to look at average runs, SR and total wickets, ER with the lens of batsmen, bowlers against similar opposition. This is where collaborative filtering is useful.

The table below shows the performance of all batsman against all bowlers in the table below. The row in the table below is the batsman and the column is the bowler, with the value in the cell is the total Runs scored by the batsman against the bowler in all matches. Note the values are 0 for batsmen who have not yet faced specific bowlers. The table is fairly sparse.

Table A

Similarly, we can compute the performance of all bowlers against all batsmen as in the table below. Here the row is the bowler, the column batsman and the value in the cell is the number of times the bowler got the batsman’s wicket. As before the data is sparsely populated

This problem of computing batsman’s performance against bowlers or vice versa, is identical to the user vs movie rating problem used in collaborative filtering. For e.g we could consider

This above problem depicted could be computed using collaborative filtering with embeddings. We could assign sequential numbers for the batsmen from 1 to M, and for the bowlers from 1 to N. The total runs scored could be represented only for the rows where there are values. One way to solve this problem in Machine Learning is to use One Hot Encoding (OHE), where we assign values for each row and each column and map the values of the table with values of the cell for each combination. But this would take a enormous computation time and memory. The solution to this is use vector embeddings. Here embeddings could be used for capturing the sparse tensors between the batsmen, bowlers, runs scored or vice versa between bowlers against batsmen and the wickets taken. We only need to consider the cells for which values exist. An embedding is a relatively low-dimensional space, into which you can translate high-dimensional vectors. An embedding captures some of the semantics of the input by placing semantically similar inputs close together in the embedding space.

a) To compute bowler performances and identify similarities between bowlers the following embedding in the Deep Learning Network was used

To compute batsmen similarities a similar Deep Learning network for bowler vs batsmen is used

I had earlier created another post Player Performance Estimation using AI Collaborative Filtering for batsman and bowler recommendation, using R package Recommender Lab. However, I was not too happy with the results I got with this R package. When I searched the net for material on using embeddings for collaborative filtering, most of material on the web on movie lens or word2vec are repetitive and have no new material. Finally, this short video lecture from Developer Google on Embeddings provided the most clarity.

I have created 4 Colab notebooks to identify player similarities (recommendations)

a) Batsman similarities IPL

b) Batsman similarities T20

c) Bowler similarities IPL

d) Bowler similarities T20

For creating the model I have used all the data for T20 and IPL from so that I get the best results. The data is from Cricsheet. I have also used Google’s Embeddings Projector to display batsman and bowler embedding to and to group similar players

All the Colab notebooks and the data associated with the code are available in Github. Feel free to download and execute them. See if you get better performance. I tried a wide variety of hyperparameters – learning rate, width and depth of nodes per layer, number of layers, gradient methods etc.

You can download all the code & data from Github at embeddings

A) Batsman Recommender IPL (BatsmanRecommenderIPLA.ipynb)

Steps for creating the model

a) Upload bowler vs batsmen with times wicket was taken for batsman. This will be a sparse matrix

b) Assign integer indices for bowlers, batsmen

c) Add additional input features balls, runs conceded and Economy rate

d) Minimise loss for wickets taken for the bowler using SGD

e) Display embeddings of similar batsmen using Tensorboard projector

a) Upload data

Upload data file
2. Remove rows where wickets = 0

from google.colab import files
import io
uploaded = files.upload()
df2 = pd.read_csv(io.BytesIO(uploaded['bowlerVsBatsmanIPLE.csv']))
print(df2.shape)
df2 = df2.loc[df2['wicketTaken']!= 0]
print(df2.shape)

uploaded = files.upload()
df6 = pd.read_csv(io.BytesIO(uploaded['bowlerVsBatsmanIPLAll.csv']))
df6

Out[14]:

	bowler1	batsman1	balls	runsConceded	ER
0	A Ashish Reddy	DJG Sammy	1	0	0.000000
1	A Ashish Reddy	G Gambhir	10	17	10.200000
2	A Ashish Reddy	JEC Franklin	2	0	0.000000
3	A Ashish Reddy	LRPL Taylor	5	6	7.200000
4	A Ashish Reddy	MA Agarwal	3	7	14.000000
…	…	…	…	…	…
8550	Z Khan	Vishnu Vinod	4	8	12.000000
8551	Z Khan	VS Malik	3	5	10.000000
8552	Z Khan	W Jaffer	7	3	2.571429
8553	Z Khan	YK Pathan	22	35	9.545455
8554	Z Khan	Yuvraj Singh	12	12	6.000000

b) Create integer dictionaries for batsmen & bowlers

bowlers = df3["bowler1"].unique().tolist()
bowlers
# Create dictionary of bowler to index
bowlers2index = {x: i for i, x in enumerate(bowlers)}
bowlers2index
#Create dictionary of index tp bowler
index2bowlers = {i: x for i, x in enumerate(bowlers)}
index2bowlers


batsmen = df3["batsman1"].unique().tolist()
batsmen
# Create dictionary of batsman to index
batsmen2index = {x: i for i, x in enumerate(batsmen)}
batsmen2index
# Create dictionary of index to batsman
index2batsmen = {i: x for i, x in enumerate(batsmen)}
index2batsmen

#Map bowler, batsman to respective indices
df3["bowler"] = df3["bowler1"].map(bowlers2index)
df3["batsman"] = df3["batsman1"].map(batsmen2index)
df3
num_bowlers =len(bowlers2index)
num_batsmen = len(batsmen2index)
df3["wicketTaken"] = df3["wicketTaken"].values.astype(np.float32)
df3
# min and max ratings will be used to normalize the ratings later
min_wicketTaken = min(df3["wicketTaken"])
max_wicketTaken = max(df3["wicketTaken"])

print(
    "Number of bowlers: {}, Number of batsmen: {}, Min wicketsTaken: {}, Max wicketsTaken: {}".format(
        num_bowlers, num_batsmen, min_wicketTaken, max_wicketTaken
    )
)

c) Concatenate additional features

df3
df6
df31=pd.concat([df3,df6],axis=1)
df31

d) Create a Tensorflow/Keras deep learning mode. Minimise using Mean Squared Error using Stochastic Gradient Descent. I used ‘dropouts’ to regularise the model to keep validation loss within limits

tf.random.set_seed(4)
vector_size=len(batsmen2index)

df4=df31[['bowler','batsman','wicketTaken','balls','runsConceded','ER']]
df4
train_dataset = df4.sample(frac=0.9,random_state=0)
test_dataset = df4.drop(train_dataset.index)

train_dataset1 = train_dataset[['bowler','batsman','balls','runsConceded','ER']]
test_dataset1 = test_dataset[['bowler','batsman','balls','runsConceded','ER']]
train_stats = train_dataset1.describe()
train_stats = train_stats.transpose()
#print(train_stats)

train_labels = train_dataset.pop('wicketTaken')
test_labels = test_dataset.pop('wicketTaken')

# Create a Deep Learning model with keras
model = tf.keras.Sequential([
    tf.keras.layers.Embedding(vector_size,16,input_length=5),
    tf.keras.layers.Flatten(),
    keras.layers.Dropout(.2),
    keras.layers.Dense(16),
 
    keras.layers.Dense(8,activation=tf.nn.relu),
    
    keras.layers.Dense(4,activation=tf.nn.relu),
    keras.layers.Dense(1)
  ])

# Print the model summary
#model.summary()
# Use the Adam optimizer with a learning rate of 0.01
#optimizer=keras.optimizers.Adam(learning_rate=.0009, beta_1=0.5, beta_2=0.999, epsilon=None, decay=0.0, amsgrad=True)
#optimizer=keras.optimizers.RMSprop(learning_rate=0.01, rho=0.2, momentum=0.2, epsilon=1e-07)
#optimizer=keras.optimizers.SGD(learning_rate=.009,momentum=0.1) - Works without dropout
optimizer=keras.optimizers.SGD(learning_rate=.01,momentum=0.1)

model.compile(loss='mean_squared_error',
                optimizer=optimizer,
                )

 # Setup the training parameters
#model.compile(loss='binary_crossentropy',optimizer='rmsprop',metrics=['accuracy'])
# Create a model
history=model.fit(
  train_dataset1, train_labels,batch_size=32,
  epochs=40, validation_data = (test_dataset1,test_labels), verbose=1)

e) Plot losses

f) Predict wickets that will be taken by bowlers against random batsmen


df5= df4[['bowler','batsman','balls','runsConceded','ER']]
test1 = df5.sample(n=10)
test1.shape
for i in range(test1.shape[0]):
      print('Bowler :', index2bowlers.get(test1.iloc[i,0]), ", Batsman : ",index2batsmen.get(test1.iloc[i,1]), '- Times wicket Prediction:',model.predict(test1.iloc[[i]]))
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 90ms/step
Bowler : Harbhajan Singh , Batsman :  AM Nayar - Times wicket Prediction: [[1.0114906]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 18ms/step
Bowler : T Natarajan , Batsman :  Arshdeep Singh - Times wicket Prediction: [[0.98656166]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 19ms/step
Bowler : KK Ahmed , Batsman :  A Mishra - Times wicket Prediction: [[1.0504484]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 24ms/step
Bowler : M Muralitharan , Batsman :  F du Plessis - Times wicket Prediction: [[1.0941994]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 25ms/step
Bowler : SK Warne , Batsman :  DR Smith - Times wicket Prediction: [[1.0679393]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 28ms/step
Bowler : Mohammad Nabi , Batsman :  Ishan Kishan - Times wicket Prediction: [[1.403399]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 32ms/step
Bowler : R Bhatia , Batsman :  DJ Thornely - Times wicket Prediction: [[0.89399755]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 26ms/step
Bowler : SP Narine , Batsman :  MC Henriques - Times wicket Prediction: [[1.1997008]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 19ms/step
Bowler : AS Rajpoot , Batsman :  K Gowtham - Times wicket Prediction: [[0.9911405]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 21ms/step
Bowler : K Rabada , Batsman :  P Simran Singh - Times wicket Prediction: [[1.0064855]]

g) The embedding can be visualised using Google’s Embedding Projector, which identifies other batsmen who have similar characteristics. Here Cosine Similarity is used for grouping similar batsmen of IPL

The closest neighbor for AB De Villiers in IPL is SK Raina, then Rohit Sharma as seen in the visualisation below

B. Bowler Recommender T20 (BowlerRecommenderT20M1A.ipynb)

Similar to how batsman was set up,

The steps are

a) Upload data for T20 Batsman vs Bowler with Total runs scored. This will be a sparse matrix

b) Create integer dictionaries for batsman & bowler

c) Add additional features like fours, sixes and strike rate

d) Minimise loss for wicket taken

e) Display embeddings of bowlers using Tensorboard Embeddings Projector

Minimizing the loss for wicket taken using SGD

tf.random.set_seed(4)
vector_size=len(batsman2index)

#Normalize target variable
df4=df31[['bowler','batsman','totalRuns','fours','sixes','ballsFaced']]
df4['normalizedRuns'] = (df4['totalRuns'] -df4['totalRuns'].mean())/df4['totalRuns'].std()
print(df4)
train_dataset = df4.sample(frac=0.8,random_state=0)
test_dataset = df4.drop(train_dataset.index)
train_dataset1 = train_dataset[['batsman','bowler','fours','sixes','ballsFaced']]
test_dataset1 = test_dataset[['batsman','bowler','fours','sixes','ballsFaced']]

train_labels = train_dataset.pop('normalizedRuns')
test_labels = test_dataset.pop('normalizedRuns')
train_labels
print(train_dataset1)

# Create a Deep Learning model with keras
model = tf.keras.Sequential([
    tf.keras.layers.Embedding(vector_size,16,input_length=5),
    tf.keras.layers.Flatten(),
    keras.layers.Dropout(.2),
    keras.layers.Dense(16),
 
    keras.layers.Dense(8,activation=tf.nn.relu),
    
    keras.layers.Dense(4,activation=tf.nn.relu),
    keras.layers.Dense(1)
  ])

# Print the model summary
#model.summary()
# Use the Adam optimizer with a learning rate of 0.01
#optimizer=keras.optimizers.Adam(learning_rate=.0009, beta_1=0.5, beta_2=0.999, epsilon=None, decay=0.0, amsgrad=True)
#optimizer=keras.optimizers.RMSprop(learning_rate=0.001, rho=0.2, momentum=0.2, epsilon=1e-07)
#optimizer=keras.optimizers.SGD(learning_rate=.009,momentum=0.1) - Works without dropout
optimizer=keras.optimizers.SGD(learning_rate=.01,momentum=0.1)

model.compile(loss='mean_squared_error',
                optimizer=optimizer,
                )

 # Setup the training parameters
#model.compile(loss='binary_crossentropy',optimizer='rmsprop',metrics=['accuracy'])
# Create a model
history=model.fit(
  train_dataset1, train_labels,batch_size=32,
  epochs=40, validation_data = (test_dataset1,test_labels), verbose=1)

model.predict(train_dataset1[1:10])
df5= df4[['batsman','bowler','fours','sixes','ballsFaced']]
test1 = df5.sample(n=10)
model.predict(test1)
#(model.predict(test1)* df4['totalRuns'].std()) + df4['totalRuns'].mean()
for i in range(test1.shape[0]):
        print('Batsman :', index2batsman.get(test1.iloc[i,0]), ", Bowler : ",index2bowler.get(test1.iloc[i,1]), '- Total runs Prediction:',(model.predict(test1.iloc[i])* df4['totalRuns'].std()) + df4['totalRuns'].mean())
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 396ms/step
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 112ms/step
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 183ms/step
Batsman : G Chohan , Bowler :  Khawar Ali - Total runs Prediction: [[1.8883028]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 56ms/step
Batsman : Umar Akmal , Bowler :  LJ Wright - Total runs Prediction: [[9.305391]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 68ms/step
Batsman : M Shumba , Bowler :  Simi Singh - Total runs Prediction: [[19.662743]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 30ms/step
Batsman : CH Gayle , Bowler :  RJW Topley - Total runs Prediction: [[16.854687]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 39ms/step
Batsman : BA King , Bowler :  Taskin Ahmed - Total runs Prediction: [[3.5154686]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 102ms/step
Batsman : KD Shah , Bowler :  Avesh Khan - Total runs Prediction: [[8.411661]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 38ms/step
Batsman : ST Jayasuriya , Bowler :  SCJ Broad - Total runs Prediction: [[5.867449]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 45ms/step
Batsman : AB de Villiers , Bowler :  Saeed Ajmal - Total runs Prediction: [[15.150892]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 46ms/step
Batsman : SV Samson , Bowler :  J Little - Total runs Prediction: [[10.44426]]
1/1 [==============================] - 0s 102ms/step
Batsman : Zawar Farid , Bowler :  GJ Delany - Total runs Prediction: [[1.9770675]]

Identifying similar bowlers using Embeddings Projector for T20

Bhuvaneshwar Kumar’s performance is closest to CR Woakes

Note: Incidentally the accuracy in the above model was not too good. I may work on this again later!

C) Bowler Embeddings IPL – Grouping similar bowlers of IPL with Embeddings Projector (BowlerRecommenderIPLA.ipynb)

D) Batting Embeddings T20 – Grouping similar batsmen of T20 (BatsmanRecommenderT20MA.ipynb)

The Tensorboard Pmbeddings projector is also interesting. There are multiple ways the data can be visualised namely UMAP, T-SNE, PCA(included). You could play with it.

As mentioned above the Colab notebooks and data are available at Github embeddings

The ability to identify batsmen & bowlers who would perform similarly against specific bowling attacks coupled with the average runs & strike rate should give a good measure of a player’s performance.

Take a look at some of my other posts